10/30/2012

A Leading Indicator



What’s what?

1960    Kennedy        D
1964    Johnson          D
1968    Nixon             R
1972    Nixon             R
1976    Carter            D
1980    Reagan           R
1984    Reagan           R
1988    Bush Sr.         R
1992    Clinton           D
Balanced Budget
1996    Clinton           D
Balanced Budget
2000    Bush Jr.          R
2004    Bush Jr.          R
2008    Obama           D
2012    ????????????????

Democrats have been elected 6 times for 24 years
Republicans have been elected 7 times for 28 years


Senate
House
Congress
Dem
Rep
Dem
Rep
86th
64
34
283
152
87th
64
36
262
175
88th
67
33
258
176
89th
68
32
295
140
90th
64
36
248
187
91st
58
42
243
192
92nd
54
44
255
180
93rd
56
42
242
192
94th
61
37
291
144
95th
61
38
292
143
96th
58
41
277
158
97th
46
53
242
192
98th
46
54
269
166
99th
47
53
253
182
100th
55
45
258
177
101st
55
45
260
175
102nd
56
44
267
167
103rd
57
43
258
176
104th
48
52
204
230
105th
45
55
207
266
106th
45
55
211
223
107th
50
50
205
229
108th
48
51
205
229
109th
44
55
202
231
110th
49
49
233
198
111th
57
41
256
178
112th
51
47
193
242


97th though 99th Congress (1981-1987) Senate controlled by Republicans during the Reagan administration when we first began to enter the Global Marketplace at the urging of Great Britain’s Prime Minister Thatcher.

104th  through 109th Congress (1995-2007)  both Senate and House were controlled by Republicans, during the Clinton (D) and Bush (R) administrations which was really amazing since Clinton managed to balance the budget.

110th through 112th Congress had 2 Independent Senators causing the Democrats a lot of backlash during 2011 and 2012 and especially the months leading up to the 2012 Presidential election.

Leading Indicators
An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices. The Fed watches many of these indicators as it decides what to do about interest rates.      Read more:

Economists will explain that these leading indicators can be anywhere from 3 to 9 month ahead of the predicted change, with the understanding that there are numerous mitigating circumstances and outside influences that could occur during the first 90 days that would delay the change into the future, so it is an educated guess at best.

So, let’s take this educated guess and speculate how long into the future after President Kennedy opened the door to Vietnam (1960) as we still experiencing the effects of that Presidential decision?  I would venture to say that it went well beyond the end of the Johnson administration (1968).

So, let’s take our educated guessing again and speculate how long into the future after President Reagan opened the door to globalization (1980) as we still experiencing the effects of that Presidential decision?  I would venture to say that we never have stopped experiencing those side effects.

So, let’s test our educating guessing one more time and speculate how long into the future after President Bush opened the door to our Middle East Invasions (2001) are we still experiencing the effects of that Presidential decision?  This too is one that we are still experiencing.

A Republican President and a Republican controlled Congress set into motion unprecedented spending that created such a large deficit that forced us to borrow money from our arch enemy and rival China whose economy will be larger than ours in few brief years.  This situation as you well know was exacerbated by GREEDY Bankers, Real Estate Moguls, and Wall Street Investors sending our country into an economic downward spiral that has not been experienced since the Great Depression.  If we mix into this economic soup outsourcing, globalization, and America’s lack of basic math, science, and English skills, we have an historical opportunity for the United States to fall even further down this slippery economic slope.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this leading indicator cannot be stopped.

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