As reported by Howard
Schneider, of The Washington Post: There’s plenty of money in the world. That’s the
good news.
The not-so-good news: The flood of dollars, euros,
yen and pounds pumped into the global economy by major central banks in recent
years has yet to pay off in the form of job creation, investment and stronger
economic growth.
It has kept banks afloat, let corporations build
large cash reserves and restructure debt and, arguably, staved off a worldwide
depression. But the ultimate aim — strong and self-sustaining growth in the
world’s core industrial economies — remains out of reach, and analysts are
wondering whether central banks are at the limits of what they can do to help. For three of the four central banks involved, their local economies remain in recession or have flat-lined despite years spent in crisis-fighting mode. New data Thursday showed that economic output in Europe fell more sharply than analysts expected at the end of last year, with gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro zone declining 0.6 percent in the last three months of 2012, compared with the prior period. Growth in Britain was zero percent, while Japan’s economy contracted 0.4 percent at the end of the year.
This stagnation follows a historic run in which
$5.5 trillion has flowed into the global economy from central banks in the
United States, Japan, Britain and the euro zone.
“This is a very unique
situation, and we cannot exclude that we are over treating the patient,”
said Domenico Lombardi,
a former Italian board member of the International Monetary Fund and now an
analyst at the Brookings Institution.
“There has been huge liquidity pumped
into the system, but only a fraction translates” into economic support for
businesses and households in those economies.
“Each successive effort at quantitative easing has
had diminished returns. There are limits, and we are probably at the threshold”
where more central bank action could do more harm than good to the global
economy, said Timothy Adams, managing director for the Institute of
International Finance, a trade
group representing the world’s major financial institutions.
The paradox of a cheap money/ slow growth world will
be at the center of talks this week in Moscow among finance and central bank
officials from the Group of 20.
With all of the major economies struggling to grow,
the rest of the world has become concerned about dwindling options. Many of the
traditional crisis-fighting tools are off limits. Governments already have high
levels of debt, making officials hesitant to borrow and spend in hopes of
boosting jobs and growth. Structural changes to economies in Europe, Japan and
the United States could take years to fully understand and longer to address.
Interest rates — the traditional means for central banks to speed or slow the
economy — are already near zero, leaving no room to cut further.
That has left central banks to rely on a variety of
methods to try to boost economic growth, by, in essence, making money and loans
easier to get.
Major currencies such as the dollar, euro and yen,
however, don’t stay at home. They circulate around the world as the fuel for
the international monetary system.
Developing nations in particular argue that
the policies pursued in Washington, Tokyo and elsewhere are driving up prices
in other markets, making stocks and real estate more expensive, increasing the
value of local currencies and perhaps setting the stage for another round of
problems if the process gets out of hand.
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