What technologies will most radically transform human life in the next twelve years? The McKinsey Global Institute looked at more than a hundred possible candidates across a variety of technology fields and narrowed the most potentially disruptive down to a dozen.
They are, in
order of size of potential impact:
Mobile Internet defined as "increasingly
inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices and Internet connectively."
Automation of knowledge work or "intelligent
software systems that perform knowledge work tasks involving unstructured
commands and subtle judgments." An example might be IBM’s Watson system.
Internet of Things or "networks of low-cost
sensors and actuators for data collection, monitoring, decision making and
process optimization."
Cloud Technology or "use of computer hardware
and software resources delivered over a network or the Internet, often as a
service."
Advanced Robotics or "increasingly capable
robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks
or augment humans." This category is perhaps most famously personified by
the Baxter robot (profiled in the May-June issue of THE FUTURIST magazine).
Autonomous and Near-Autonomous Vehicles.
Next Generation Genomics or "fast, low-cost
gene sequencing, advanced big-data analytics, and synthetic biology."
Energy Storage.
3D Printing
Advanced Materials defined as "materials
designed to have superior characteristics." Much of what we today call
nanotechnology would fall within this category.
Advanced Oil and Natural Gas Recovery.
Renewable Energy.
Of the above, the Mobile Internet, which could
change the lives of more than 5 billion people around the globe, the automation
of knowledge work, and the Internet of Things would have by far the largest
economic impacts, according to McKinsey.
All together, the above technologies
could generate $14 to $33 trillion. But the authors caution that much of that
growth will be at the expense of older technologies and even entire industries
falling into obsolescence.
"When necessary, leaders must be prepared to
disrupt their own businesses and make the investments to effect change,"
the report’s authors write. "By the time the technologies that we describe
are exerting their influence on the economy in 2025, it will be too late for
businesses, policy makers, and citizens to plan their responses. Nobody,
especially businesses leaders, can afford to be the last person using video
cassettes in a DVD world."
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