Shortage in the Air

The nation’s airline industry could be hitting some turbulence, according to a government report that found pilots might be in short supply.

“Recent industry forecasts indicate that the global aviation industry is poised for growth,” said a report Friday from the Government Accountability Office, Congress‘ watchdog arm. 

“However, stakeholders have voiced concerns that imminent retirements, fewer pilots exiting the military, and new rules increasing the number of flight hours required to become a first officer for an airline could result in a shortage of qualified airline pilots.”

Airline pilots enjoy a relatively low unemployment rate, but that may mean demand for pilots is starting to outstrip supply, the GAO said. Plus, their wages have fallen since a high in 2000, while flight school is becoming more expensive.

“Such costs deter individuals from pursuing a pilot career,” investigators said. “Pilot schools that GAO interviewed reported fewer students entering their programs resulting from concerns over the high costs of education and low entry-level pay at regional airlines.”

The largest problems are at those regional airlines, the GAO said. While larger companies hire more experienced pilots, regional airlines often must hire people who recently graduated from flight school.

“Nearly all of the regional airlines that GAO interviewed reported difficulties finding sufficient numbers of qualified entry-level first officers,” the report said.

Estimates place the current number of civilian pilots in the U.S. at about 70,000. Both the airline industry and the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics expect a need of between 1,900 and 4,500 new pilots per year over the next decade.

Some studies the GAO reviewed suggested there is an adequate supply of pilots, including those currently working overseas or in the military, or who might be in a non-flight-related job.

“However, whether these pilots choose to seek employment with U.S. airlines depends on the extent to which pilot job opportunities arise, and on the wages and benefits airlines offer,” investigators said.