Syria Rejects Peace

Syrian government representatives have ruled out starting direct negotiations with the opposition, as UN-backed peace talks entered a third day in Geneva.

On Tuesday, opposition leaders said they were ready to meet face-to-face.

But chief government negotiator Bashar al-Jaafari rejected the idea, calling his opposition counterpart a terrorist.

Meanwhile, Syria's main Kurdish party - which has not been invited to Geneva - plans to declare a federal system of administration in the country's north.

Officials from the Democratic Union Party (PYD), whose YPG militia controls a 400km (250-mile) stretch of contiguous territory along the Turkish border, said the system would include representation for all ethnic groups living there.

Mr Jaafari refused to comment on the plan but warned: "Betting on creating any kind of divisions among the Syrians will be a total failure."

He also explained after his second meeting with UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura that he would refuse to take part in direct talks with the opposition's chief negotiator, Mohammed Alloush, a member of the Jaysh al-Islam rebel group.

Mr Jaafari accused Mr Alloush of belonging to a terrorist organization that "bombed embassies" and "killed engineering students", and demanded that he "apologizes for the statement he made previously and withdraws it", without elaborating.

The so-called "proximity" talks currently involve Mr de Mistura shuttling between the two sides, communicating their different views on how to end the five-year conflict, in which more than 250,000 people have been killed.

Mr Jaafari's refusal to meet the opposition face-to-face shows that despite initial progress these talks will be difficult, reports the BBC's Imogen Foulkes in Geneva.

The Syrian government is clearly smarting over Russia's plan to withdraw most of its forces from Syria, our correspondent says. 

Although Mr Jaafari insisted this was a decision taken jointly by Moscow and Damascus, she adds, all the signs are that President Bashar al-Assad was taken by surprise.

Russia Pulls Out

In a surprise move, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to start withdrawing the "main part" of its forces in Syria from Tuesday.

He said the Russian intervention had largely achieved its objectives. 

The comments come amid fresh peace talks in Geneva aimed at resolving the five-year Syrian conflict.

Russia is a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose office said in a statement he had agreed to the move.

The pullout was "in accordance with the situation on the ground", the statement said.

Russia began its campaign of air strikes in Syria last September, tipping the balance in favor of the Syrian government and allowing it to recapture territory from rebels.

"I consider the mission set for the defense ministry and the armed forces on the whole has been accomplished," Mr Putin said in a meeting at the Kremlin.

"I am therefore ordering the defense ministry to begin the withdrawal of the main part of our military force from the Syrian Arab Republic from tomorrow."

When Russian airstrikes began in Syria, President Assad's regime was on the brink of collapse. 

Less than six months later, Russia says its action allowed Syrian government troops to retake 10,000 sq km (3,860 sq miles) of territory. 

By intervening, Vladimir Putin made clear that Russia was prepared to assert its interests. The results ensure Moscow a bigger say in what happens at the peace talks. 

The decision to scale down Russian operations may partly be fueled by cost, given falling oil prices; it could also be driven by a desire to end Russia's isolation and western sanctions
.
But whilst Vladimir Putin has ordered his foreign minister to focus efforts on the political front in Syria, he appears to be hedging his bets. 

Critically, sophisticated air defense systems seem set to stay. 

And as we have never been told officially how many troops were ever sent to Syria, we are unlikely to know how many will remain. Read more: 

Russia Attempts to Build Peace

Russia has faced heavy criticism in the West over its military operation in Syria. 

The Russian air force has been accused of indiscriminate bombing. 

The human rights group Amnesty International says it has "compelling evidence" that Russian and Syrian government forces had "deliberately and systematically targeted hospitals and other medical facilities" in Aleppo in the north.

But during our trip to Syria this week, the Russian military has tried to convince us that it is playing a constructive role: that of peacemaker.

We were taken to two villages to see the Russian army handing out plastic bags with humanitarian aid: tinned fish and meat, dried peas and biscuits.

Printed on the packages were the Russian and Syrian flags and the words 'Russia is with you!" (though written in Russian, not Arabic).

In Maarzaf, near Hama, we saw a village elder signing a declaration of peace with a Russian army officer. 

The village pledged to support the process of reconciliation in Syria and bow to Syrian government control in return for security guarantees. 

A large tent had been erected for the occasion and many of the villagers were there to witness the event. Afterwards, the Russian army handed out Russian sweets and biscuits to local children.

It was in Maarzaf that we met Ahmed Mubarak: a pro-Moscow local sheikh who is working with the Russians to persuade villages across Hama province to sign similar pledges. 

The sheikh has his own private army: many of his heavily armed "soldiers" were in the village for the ceremony; some had taken up positions on rooftops, others - with guns slung over their shoulders - wandered through the crowd.

The Russian army had brought us to the village in an armoured vehicle and we had been advised to wear body armor here. 

Despite the peace agreement in this village, it did not feel as if peace was breaking out in Syria.

The Russians admit that towns and villages are not rushing to sign peace deals.

"Negotiations with villages are difficult," Lt-Col German Rudenko told us. He heads the Russian army's Reconciliation Group for Hama province.

"People are worried that by agreeing to co-operate with us, they will face pressure from terrorist groups."

The Russians have signed a similar peace declaration with the district of al-Tall, north of Damascus. But that does not mean all armed opponents of President Bashar-al Assad have laid down their weapons.

One resident in the town told me there were still "rebels" there, though she would not specify from which militant groups. 

"They are now thinking, they are not going against our army," she said. "Some of them are trying to settle down, some of them waiting. It's not very clear, but things are going in the right direction."

The United Nations says that the cessation of hostilities in Syria, negotiated by Russia and the United States, is holding. But only just. The UN describes it as "fragile" and warns "success is not guaranteed".

The Siege is On

A single road, like a fragile umbilical cord, connects rebel areas of Syria's second city Aleppo with international relief from Turkey. 

Those who remain are stockpiling arms and supplies -- bracing for their redoubt to be completely blockaded by the Syrian regime.

In the Turkish city of Gaziantep, charities are preparing to send aid south of the border to a Syrian city where 250,000 to 300,000 people are still living despite the relentless violence, too poor to escape or too invested in the fighting's outcome to run away.

"The siege by regime forces is not yet a done deal," said Assad Al-Ashi, head of the NGO Baytna Syria, adding that one road to Aleppo's west remains open.

"But it is under fire from all sides so it is still dangerous. It can be cut off at any moment," he said.

"Preparations are in full swing to get ready for a full siege," Ashi added.

"Syrian humanitarian organizations -- there are around a hundred on the ground -- are stockpiling everything they can inside the city.

"The local council in Aleppo has formed an emergency body to prepare for the siege. In the event of a total siege, Aleppo could last for a year, probably more," he estimated.

President Bashar al-Assad's army began large-scale offensives against the Aleppo rebels in February, backed by an intense campaign of Russian air strikes.

Bombardment by bombardment, strike by strike, fears that the city faces complete encirclement have taken hold, with thousands of civilians displaced by the fighting.

Insurgent groups can still reach the other rebel stronghold of Idlib in the northwest. From there, the Aleppo fighters have stockpiled hundreds -- perhaps even thousands -- of tonnes of weapons and provisions like flour, oil, sugar and medical supplies.

The siege of the southern city of Homs -- where the rebels held out for three years before finally surrendering -- provides a grim example of what Aleppo could face.

"But Aleppo won't be like that," said Manhal Bareesh of the Syrian opposition.

"The rebel zones are much larger and better defended. They are building trenches and tunnels so they can continue to move around. The siege will never be completely watertight." 

Many hospitals and clinics, often targeted by air strikes to demoralize civilians and fighters, have been moved to basements, as have some schools. Read more:

Aid to Syria

The first six of 40 lorries carrying wheat flour and medical supplies entered Madaya on Thursday evening.

The UN says 40,000 people are living in appalling conditions in Madaya, which is surrounded by government forces.

A smaller aid convoy also reached two towns under siege by rebels in the country's north-west on Thursday.

The situation in Foah and Kefraya in Idlib province, where 20,000 people are trapped, is said to be similarly dire.

The UN, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Syrian Arab Red Crescent lorries reached Madaya on Thursday afternoon, carrying 120 tonnes of flour, as well as medical supplies, blankets and clothing.

The convoy also includes a nutritionist and health teams to assess Madaya's residents, between 300 and 400 of whom are said to be severely malnourished.

"We are encouraged that we have been able to reach these towns, where thousands of people have been trapped for very long periods of time," the UN humanitarian co-ordinator for Syria, Yacoub El Hillo, told reporters.

"We do not want to see this as a one-off," he added. "Ultimately the real solution to this predicament, to the plight of the people besieged in these towns, is for the siege to be lifted." 

Mr El Hillo added that the World Health Organisation was in direct talks with the Syrian government to secure the evacuation of hundreds of people in Madaya in need of urgent medical treatment.

Madaya, in the mountains 25km (15 miles) north-west of Damascus, has been besieged for six months by government forces and allied fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah movement.

"The scenes we witnessed in Madaya were truly heartbreaking. People are desperate. Food is in extremely short supply," said Marianne Gasser, head of the ICRC's delegation in Syria, who accompanied the first aid convoy on Monday. 

"The conditions are some of the worst that I have witnessed in my five years in the country. This cannot go on," she added.

Russia Kills More

The death toll of Russian air strikes in Syria’s Idlib province has nearly reached 100, as several dozen of those who were critically injured in the attacks on Saturday have died, a volunteer rescue group reports.

"After 32 hours of our rescue operation, and following the deaths of those who were critically injured, the total death toll of the strikes has risen to 96," the Syria Civil Defence said in a press release on Sunday.

The attacks in Idlib targeted a court and a prison run by al-Nusra Front in the rebel-held town of Maarat al-Numaan, Anas Maarawi, a media activist in Idlib, told Al Jazeera.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at 81.

In Douma, located in Damascus suburbs, Russian air strikes killed at least eight people on Sunday, the Syrian Observatory reported, adding that the death toll was expected to rise.

Idlib province is mostly controlled by the Fatah Army coalition - which includes al-Nusra Front, Jund al-Aqsa, Jaish al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, Ajnad al-Sham, and several other factions.

More than 250,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict, which began with popular protests in March 2011 and ultimately turned into a civil war following a brutal military crackdown.

The main opposition bloc, the Syrian National Coalition, said in a report released on Saturday that it had documented the deaths of 1,730 civilians due to Russian air strikes since their launch in September 2015.

At least 135 children were among those killed, the coalition said, adding that over 29 hospitals were destroyed in the strikes in addition to schools, homes and places of worship.

In a statement, the coalition called on the UN Security Council "to assume its responsibilities towards Russians’ continued violation of international and humanitarian laws".

The statement also said that "Russia’s claim of fighting terrorism is a pretext to justify its aggression on Syria, which was clear from day one when its air force committed massacres against civilians.

"Nearly 94 percent of the 12,000 sorties the Russia air force has so far flown in Syria targeted civilians and the Free Syrian Army".

Russia's defense ministry denied in December 2015 that it targets civilians in its air strikes, after an Amnesty International report accused it of doing so.

Russia says its target is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group and other "terrorists", adding that the report was biased and contained un-grounded claims.

Speaking to journalists, ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the report contained "trite cliches" and "fake information".

Everyone Wants A Piece of Syria

The assassination of Hezbullah's operative Samir Kantar in Syria last week has sparked a heated debate about the circumstances surrounding his presence in Syria.

However, what is more important than the questions about what roles were assigned to Kantar, is the bigger geostrategic picture that is a key motive for the assassination.

Kantar had enjoyed a revered status despite never having been a major operational figure within Hezbullah ranks or the Palestinian resistance in Lebanon prior to that. 

He was only 16 when he was captured by Israel in 1979, before Hezbullah even existed.

His status was squarely the result of him being the longest serving Lebanese detainee in an Israeli prison, before his release through a prisoners' swap deal between Hezbullah and Israel.

The length of his imprisonment provided Hezbollah with an opportunity to paint him as a hero. 

The group capitalised on this symbolic status following the success of the swap deal in 2008.

Overnight, Kantar came to personify Hezbollah's message of resistance and resilience. 

It is this image that the group invoked when Kantar was sent to Syria following Hezbullah's military involvement in the country's civil war.

Hezbullah created what it viewed as a legitimate framework for its presence in Syria, by painting this intervention as part of its anti-Israeli resistance operation. 

Kantar was subsequently given the title of leader of the "Syrian resistance for the liberation of the Golan brigades".

According to this framework, Kantar's presence in Syria was part of Hezbullah's efforts 'to liberate' the Golan Heights from Israeli occupation.

A closer inspection, however, would clearly show that Hezbullah’s actions in the Golan Heights have mainly targeted the Syrian opposition groups, not Israel.

Another argument suggested that Kantar, being Druze by birth, was playing a leading role in Hezbullah's attempts to reach out to the Druze community in the Golan Heights in order to gain a strategic foothold from which to attack Israel, but this argument does not hold much water.

Kantar was not necessarily the key figure in Hezbollah's outreach attempt. 

Courting the Druze community involves more than offering a symbolic religious token by a movement well known for its Iranian-inspired ideology.

A third scenario, behind the assassination of Kantar, as reported by local Lebanese media, does not absolve the Syrian regime from responsibility. 

Kantar, according to the Lebanese daily Annahar newspaper, might have been masterminding a large-scale operation against Israel that would have brought it into direct confrontation with the Syrian regime.

Putin's Drive for Syria

MOSCOW — The main bell in St. Isaac’s Cathedral in St. Petersburg tolled 224 times on Sunday, once for each victim of the destruction of a Russian charter flight in Egypt a week ago.

Although President Vladimir V. Putin and his aides at first indignantly dismissed suspicions of a terrorist act, the Kremlin has since then clearly come to grips with the idea that a bomb was probably involved in the crash: Late Friday it suspended all travel by Russians to Egypt, and initiated an emergency airlift that by Sunday had repatriated 11,000 Russians, by government count.

Should an attack be confirmed — and particularly if the Islamic State’s claim that it bombed the plane in revenge for Russia’s intervention in Syria turns out to be true — analysts and other experts expect that it will only strengthen Mr. Putin’s resolve to become more deeply involved in the Middle East.

First, Mr. Putin said the Russian Air Force’s bombing campaign in Syria was partly intended to help dismantle the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which includes up to 7,000 fighters from Russia and the former Soviet Union. One worry is that they might return to wage a terrorist war in Russia.

An attack against a civilian airliner would confirm that Russian interests were already being threatened — and might cause Russia to begin targeting the Islamic State more aggressively.

Note:  If and when Russia begins targeting ISIS more aggressively, it will take some of the pressure off of the USA and its allies and will better align the entire world against ISIS.

Russian Planes Breaking Down

WASHINGTON – Russian warplanes sent to Syria to back the regime of Bashar Assad are breaking down at a rapid rate that appears to be affecting their ability to strike targets, according to a senior Defense official.

Nearly one-third of Russian attack planes and half of its transport aircraft are grounded at any time as the harsh, desert conditions take a toll on equipment and crews, said the official who was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive intelligence matters.

The Russians appear to be having difficulty adapting to the dusty conditions, and the number of airstrikes they have conducted seems to have dipped slightly.

"For deployed forces, that's a hideous rate," said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Teal Group, an aerospace consulting firm.

Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed warplanes, including Russia's advanced Fullback ground-attack jet, helicopters and troops to a base near Latakia, Syria, in September. In addition, at least a dozen transport planes have been stationed there.

"They could have bad operating procedures, inadequate supplies of spare parts and support crews," Aboulafia said.

Russia's inexperience deploying forces at some distance, unlike their military actions in bordering countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, could also account for problems keeping planes in the air, he said.

"An awful lot of expeditionary warfare revolves around logistics," Aboulafia said. "A lot of it comes down to experience. They don't have that much of it."

For U.S. warplanes, readiness rates of less than 80% would attract attention from top brass, said a senior Air Force commander with multiple combat deployments in the Middle East. The officer was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter. 

However, the officer noted that planes break, especially in austere, deployed conditions. He characterized mission-readiness rates of less than 80% as a matter of concern, not alarm.

David Deptula, a retired three-star Air Force general who led planning for the air war in Operation Desert Storm, said the rates for American fighters in combat zones has been above 90%. 

The readiness rate of 70% for Russian fighters isn't surprising, he said, because they lack experience being deployed and have been flying their jets hard. 

He called their rates for cargo planes, "pretty low."

"If those rates are accurate, it indicates that their deployed logistics function requires some attention," Deptula said.       Read more:

France Targets Syria

PARIS — French warplanes have struck targets in Syria for the first time, President François Hollande’s office said Sunday.

The strikes were launched against targets identified during reconnaissance missions flown by the French airforce over the past two weeks, in coordination with the U.S.-led coalition bombing Islamic State of Syria and the Levant, or ISIL, a statement from the presidency said.

It did not specify how many strikes were carried out, or against which type of target.

The strikes confirm the extension of France’s air campaign against ISIL from Iraq, where France’s efforts were originally contained, to Syria, as Hollande announced two weeks ago.

“We will strike every time our national security is threatened,” the statement said. “But the Syrian chaos must have a global solution.

Civilian populations must be protected against all forms of violence, those of Daesh (ISIL), but also against the murderous bombardments of [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad.”

Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said this month that France was launching strikes in Syria to prevent ISIL from mounting terrorist attacks in France, and because the group had advanced more than expected in Syria.      Read more:

Putin Says US Support for Syria Illegal

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday branded U.S. support for rebel forces in Syria as illegal and ineffective, saying U.S.-trained rebels were leaving to join Islamic State with weapons supplied by Washington.

In an interview with U.S. networks recorded ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Putin said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad deserved international support as he was fighting terrorist organizations.

Obama and Putin are scheduled to talk on Monday after Putin addresses the United Nations, although White House and Kremlin officials have disagreed on what the two leaders will discuss and even who initiated the meeting.

"In my opinion, provision of military support to illegal structures runs counter to the principles of modern international law and the United Nations Charter," he said in an excerpt of an interview with U.S. television networks CBS and PBS released by the Kremlin.

Russia has stepped up its military involvement in Syria in recent weeks, with U.S. officials accusing Moscow of sending combat aircraft, tanks and other equipment to help the Syrian army.

Russia's sudden military build-up this month in support of Assad and a refugee crisis that has spilled over from the region into Europe have lent new urgency to attempts to resolve the Syria conflict.   Read More: 

Russia Flies Free As A Bird

WASHINGTON — Russia is using an air corridor over Iraq and Iran to fly military equipment and personnel to a new air hub in Syria, openly defying American efforts to block the shipments and significantly increasing tensions with Washington.

American officials disclosed Sunday that at least seven giant Russian Condor transport planes had taken off from a base in southern Russia during the past week to ferry equipment to Syria, all passing through Iranian and Iraqi airspace.

Their destination was an airfield south of Latakia, Syria, which could become the most significant new Russian military foothold in the Middle East in decades, American officials said.

The Obama administration initially hoped it had hampered the Russian effort to move military equipment and personnel into Syria when Bulgaria, a NATO member, announced it would close its airspace to the flights.

But Russia quickly began channeling its flights over Iraq and Iran, which Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said on Sunday would continue despite American objections.

“There were military supplies, they are ongoing, and they will continue,” Mr. Lavrov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. “They are inevitably accompanied by Russian specialists, who help to adjust the equipment, to train Syrian personnel how to use this weaponry.”

Moscow’s military buildup in Syria, where the Kremlin has been supporting President Bashar al-Assad in a four-and-a-half-year civil war, adds a new friction point in its relations with the United States.

The actions also lay bare another major policy challenge for the United States: how to encourage Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq, who came to power with the blessing of the United States, to block the Russian flights.

American diplomats raised the issue with the Iraqi government on Sept. 5, hoping that the Iraqis would follow Bulgaria’s example and declare their airspace off limits to the Russian transport planes.  Read more: 

Syria's Chemical Weapons

A US ship carrying deadly material from Syria's chemical weapons program has left Italy in the final phases of the destruction of the arsenal.

The naval vessel is taking the cargo, including mustard gas and components of the nerve agents VX and sarin, to international waters to be destroyed.

The materials were transferred from a Danish vessel to the US ship earlier on Wednesday, at the port of Gioia Tauro.

Syria agreed to the destruction of its chemical weapons stockpile last year.

The deal - backed by the UN and brokered by the US and Russia - was struck amid the threat of US air strikes, triggered by a sarin gas attack on a rebel-held suburb of Damascus.

The shipment marks the closing phases in the operation to destroy Syria's toxic arsenal.

The Danish vessel, Ark Futara, docked on Wednesday morning, carrying the materials and accompanied by Italian coast guard ships and a military helicopter.

The transfer of the cargo to the US ship was completed amid tight security, with access roads to the port sealed off.

The US vessel is equipped with a plant where the bulk of the chemicals can be neutralised by the process of hydrolysis.

During hydrolysis, the chemical agents are broken down with hot water and then further neutralized with sodium hydroxide - also known as caustic soda or lye.

Any remaining waste is expected to be buried on land, in purpose-built facilities.

Italy's Environment Minister, Gian Luca Galletti, said on Twitter that he was proud of his country's "contribution to international security", adding that the operation at Gioia Tauro was transparent and environmentally safe.

However, a trade unionist at the port told AFP he was concerned about the transfer. 

"This is not a routine operation, it's a military operation and we are very worried," Domenico Macri said.  "If there's an accident, a container breaks or falls, the substances which would come out could do serious damage," he said.

Hezbollah and Syria

The twin bombings that killed at least five people outside of an Iranian cultural center recently were a particularly pointed assault on the Shiite party Hezbollah and Iran, both key allies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

"They're essentially going after [Hezbollah's] boss," said Phillip Smyth, who researches Hezbollah at the University of Maryland. "You don't get any more direct than that."

But if the attack was aimed at driving Hezbollah out of Syria's civil war, Smyth suggested that the Iranian-supported militia is unlikely to relinquish its role. "I seriously doubt that," he told The WorldPost, saying that Hezbollah leadership had recently "doubled down" on its statements in support of fighting in Syria.

The bombings Wednesday were the sixth such attack to hit Lebanon this year and the first since the country announced a new government on Saturday. Many of the attacks have targeted majority-Shiite areas in south Beirut and the town of Hermel near the Syrian border, in what is widely seen as an effort to pressure Hezbollah.

The group has sent thousands of fighters to Syria to boost the Assad regime's military strength, and Iran has lent vital support to both Hezbollah and the Syrian government, including diplomatic backing and military aid.

The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an al-Qaeda linked jihadi group that claimed responsibility on Twitter for the attacks, called the bombings a "response to the killings of the Iranian party [Hezbollah] alongside the criminal Syrian regime" and said it would continue launching attacks until Hezbollah withdraws. 

The group also claimed responsibility for an attack in November at the Iranian embassy, which sparked a string of increasingly frequent bombings in Lebanon.

At the scene of the bombings, Hezbollah politician Ali Ammar insisted that his party would stay in Syria regardless of the attacks, telling reporters that Hezbollah would "not withdraw from a strategic battle."

In a speech in Beirut earlier, Hezbollah chief 

Hasrallah expressed the same sentiment, saying 

the deaths and damage caused by recent bombings 

would not drive his party out of Syria.

"This blood and wounds and patience and perseverance are part of the battle," Nasrallah said. "And yes, it is worth it so that we do not lose our land, so that our children are not slaughtered and our property stolen."

An Arab Warning

Saudi Arabia has warned it has been forced to go its own way in foreign policy as its Western allies seek diplomatic solutions to the war in Syria and crisis with Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to London said US-led diplomacy in the region was risking the stability of the Middle East.

Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz al-Saud said his country is determined to independently arm Syria rebels and could not stand idly by while thousands of children were being killed by Syria’s regime.

Despite almost a century of friendly ties with countries such as Britain and America, the oil rich monarchy can no longer follow its allies as they pursue diplomacy with its Middle Eastern enemies.

“We believe that many of the West’s policies on both Iran and Syria risk the stability and security of the Middle East,” he wrote in the New York Times. “The West has allowed one regime to survive and the other to continue its program for uranium enrichment, with all the consequent dangers of weaponization.”

The comments come as Syria opposition officials report that Western diplomats have privately said that next month’s peace talks may not lead to the removal of President Bashar al-Assad from power. 

At a summit of opposition backers in London last week, the opposition was told that the transitional arrangements must preserve key parts of the current regime.

“Our Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go now because they think chaos and an Islamist militant takeover would ensue,” said one senior member of the opposition said.

High level warnings from Saudi royals over the West’s betrayal of previously shared foreign policy goals have also included demands for the Gulf countries to have a seat at negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former head of Saudi intelligence, said Riyadh felt the US and its allies had worked behind its back to achieve a diplomatic accord with Iran.

“It is important for us to sit down at the same table,” he said. “We have been absent.”

Prince Turki added that the US had “given the impression” it would take actions against Syria but had subsequently not delivered.

Saudi Arabia still expects its allies to challenge the two regimes over the bloodshed in Syria but is finding that West is refused to take action, Prince Mohammad added. 

As a result Saudi Arabia would take its own approach to the conflict, and orchestrate its own financial and military strategy of support to the Syrian rebels.

“To do otherwise is to walk on by, while a humanitarian disaster and strategic failure continue to fester,” Prince Mohammad wrote.

Julian Barnes-Dacey, a Syria expert at the European Council for Foreign Relations, said the Saudi leadership viewed support for the Syrian rebels and overthrow of the Iranian-aligned Syrian regime as vital for its own security. 

“There is broad consensus on the need to push hard on Syria because they don’t want the Iranians to gain the upper hand,” he said. “Saudi Arabia is upping its game to help the rebels on the ground. 

This is not just empty talk but is an appeal to the West to stand alongside them as they look to change the end game.” 

War Criminals

I wonder why?

GENEVA, Feb 18 (Reuters) - United Nations investigators said on Monday that Syrian leaders they had identified as suspected war criminals should face the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The investigators urged the U.N. Security Council to "act urgently to ensure accountability" for violations, including murder and torture, committed by both sides in a conflict that has killed an estimated 70,000 people since a revolt against President Bashar al-Assad began in March, 2011.

"Now really it's time...We have a permanent court, the International Criminal Court, who would be ready to take this case," Carla del Ponte, a former ICC chief prosecutor who joined the U.N. team in September, told a news briefing in Geneva.

The inquiry, led by Brazilian Paulo Pinheiro, is tracing the chain of command to establish criminal responsibility.

"Of course we were able to identify high-level perpetrators," del Ponte said, adding that these were people "in command responsibility...deciding, organizing, planning and aiding and abetting the commission of crimes".

She said it was urgent for the Hague-based war crimes tribunal to take up cases of very high officials, but did not identify them, in line with the inquiry's practice.

Del Ponte, who brought former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to the ICC on war crimes charges, said the ICC prosecutor would need to deepen the investigation on Syria before an indictment could be prepared.

Pinheiro, noting that the Security Council would have to refer Syria's case to the ICC, said: "We are in very close dialogue with all the five permanent members and with all the members of the Security Council, but we don't have the key that will open the path to cooperation inside the Security Council."

Karen Koning AbuZayd, an American member of the U.N. team, told Reuters it had information pointing to "people who have given instructions and are responsible for government policy, people who are in the leadership of the military, for example".

The inquiry's third list of suspects, building on lists drawn up in the past year, remains secret. It will be entrusted to U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, upon expiry of its mandate at the end of March, the report said.

Pinheiro said the investigators would not speak publicly about "numbers, names or levels" of suspects, adding that it was vital to pursue accountability for international crimes "to counter the pervasive sense of impunity" in Syria.   Read more…